Fig. 2

Trends in the projected demand, supply, and need-based number of health workers by World Bank income group, 2013–2030. Legend: Middle-income countries are predicted to experience the largest and most rapidly increasing demand and subsequent labor market shortages over this time period. The average annual growth in the supply of health workers is lower in high- and upper middle income countries than in the lower-middle income countries, but the comparatively higher growth in demand will lead to the largest health worker shortages in the labor market in upper middle-income countries. The growth in the supply for workers is predicted to be the slowest in low-income countries, but the growth in demand is also slow. As a result, the net shortage of health workers in low-income countries will reduce by 2030, but still fall significantly below the threshold level (4.45 health workers per 1000 population) estimated by WHO [31] to be required to meet the basic health care needs