Table 3 Example of step 2 of the baseline model (scenario 0): General Practitioners in the Netherlands

There are different developments regarding the available supply of GPs in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2019 that will influence the available supply in 2019:

Outflow

It is estimated that 38.2% (2,341) of male GPs and 19.2% (785) of female GPs working in 2009 will stop work before 2019. This estimation is mostly based on the GPs’ age structure.

Inflow from abroad

It is assumed that between 2009 and 2019, 109 GPs will come from abroad to work in the Netherlands, 46 of whom will be female. It is estimated that 93 of these GPs will still be active in the Netherlands in 2019.

Inflow from training

In the baseline year (2009), there were 1,507 GPs in training, of which 71% were female. The return on training is 98% and therefore 1,477 students from this year will complete their training before 2019. In 2019, 1,320 of them will still be working as GPs. In 2009 and 2010, 1,228 students will start GP training, of which 1,153 will complete their training before 2019. In 2019, 1,054 of these will still be working as GPs. To obtain a complete picture of the size of the inflow from training until 2019, five more years of students, from 2011 to 2016, will have to be taken into account. This means an additional number of 3,070 students will start GP training, of whom 2,883 will graduate before 2019. In 2019, 2,690 will still be working.

There are also developments regarding the required supply of GPs in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2019 that will eventually influence the required supply in 2019:

Demand developments

It is estimated that the required supply (or health-care demand) will increase by 6.0% as a result of demographic developments in this period.