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Table 4 Example of step 3 of the baseline model (scenario 0): General Practitioners in the Netherlands

From: Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

Part of model

Calculation

Future available supply

For 2019, it has been predicted that the total number of GPs available will be 12,246; of these, 5,301 will be male and 6,945 will be female. It is estimated that male GPs will work 0.822 FTE and female GPs will work 0.551 FTE on average. Using these numbers, the total available supply in FTE in 2019 can be predicted as 8,187 FTE.

Developments between 2009 and 2019

This number has been derived from the earlier presented estimations: the number of GPs available in 2009 and 2019, the outflow and inflow of GPs between 2009 and 2019, the return on training, labour market return of training, and the inflow from abroad (see Table 3).

Future required supply

For 2019, it has been predicted that the total required supply is 7,807, based on the required supply in 2009 (7,365 FTE, including unmet demand), the estimated gap between supply and demand, and demographic developments until 2019 (which will increase demand by 6.0%).