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Table 6 Example of the extended model (scenario 1): General Practitioners in the Netherlands

From: Ten years of health workforce planning in the Netherlands: a tentative evaluation of GP planning as an example

Part of model Calculation
Supply and demand developments It is assumed that demographic developments will increase the demand for GPs until 2019 by 6.0%, epidemiological developments by 3.0%, sociocultural developments by 5.0%, and technical developments by 1.0%; that developments regarding efficiency will decrease the demand by 2.0%; and that developments regarding horizontal substitution will increase the demand by 5.0%. This leads to the estimation that the required supply in 2019 will be equal to 9,056 FTE.
Difference between supply and demand As seen earlier, the total available supply in 2019 will be 8,187 FTE; hence, there will be a shortage of 869 FTE GPs if Scenario 1 is applied.
Future inflow in training To bridge this gap, the future number of GPs in training per year should increase from 614 to 929.