Table 6 Example of the extended model (scenario 1): General Practitioners in the Netherlands
Part of model | Calculation |
|---|---|
Supply and demand developments | It is assumed that demographic developments will increase the demand for GPs until 2019 by 6.0%, epidemiological developments by 3.0%, sociocultural developments by 5.0%, and technical developments by 1.0%; that developments regarding efficiency will decrease the demand by 2.0%; and that developments regarding horizontal substitution will increase the demand by 5.0%. This leads to the estimation that the required supply in 2019 will be equal to 9,056 FTE. |
Difference between supply and demand | As seen earlier, the total available supply in 2019 will be 8,187 FTE; hence, there will be a shortage of 869 FTE GPs if Scenario 1 is applied. |
Future inflow in training | To bridge this gap, the future number of GPs in training per year should increase from 614 to 929. |