Supply and demand developments

It is assumed that demographic developments will increase the demand for GPs until 2019 by 6.0%, epidemiological developments by 3.0%, sociocultural developments by 5.0%, and technical developments by 1.0%; that developments regarding efficiency will decrease the demand by 2.0%; and that developments regarding horizontal substitution will increase the demand by 5.0%. This leads to the estimation that the required supply in 2019 will be equal to 9,056 FTE.

Difference between supply and demand

As seen earlier, the total available supply in 2019 will be 8,187 FTE; hence, there will be a shortage of 869 FTE GPs if Scenario 1 is applied.

Future inflow in training

To bridge this gap, the future number of GPs in training per year should increase from 614 to 929.
