Table 7 Example of the extended model (scenario 2): General Practitioners in the Netherlands

Supply and demand developments

In Scenario 2, the developments of Scenario 1 are repeated and in addition experts assume that the developments of working hours per FTE will neither decrease nor increase the demand for GPs for this period. This means that the estimated required supply in 2019 will be equal to 9,056 FTE (same as in Scenario 1). In contrast, as is depicted in Figure 3, for other years (2000, 2003, 2006) a certain amount of change in working hours per FTE was estimated (Scenario 2).

Difference between supply and demand

As we saw earlier, the total available supply in 2019 will be 8,187 FTE, which means that there will be a shortage of 869 FTE GPs if Scenario 2 is applied (same as in Scenario 1).