Table 1 Studies of demand for and supply of physicians in Thailand from 1972 to 2004
From: Projecting Thailand physician supplies between 2012 and 2030: application of cohort approaches
Year | Organizations | Methodology | Key results and recommendations |
|---|---|---|---|
Before 1972 | National Economic and Social Development Board | Physician to population ratio | Need more physicians to meet the target of one doctor to 5,000 population |
1979 | Coordinating Committee for Medical and Health Affairs | Service targeted approach | Thailand needs 200 more doctors per annum to meet the demand for rural health development project. |
1986 | The Thai Medical Council | Service targeted approach | Predict a shortage of 4,286 physicians by 2000 |
1986 | National Economic and Social Development Board | Trend projection | Adequate supply by the year 2000 |
1992 | Health Planning Division, the Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) | Physician to population ratio | Increase production in response to increased demand due to economic growth, need 340 more doctors per annum |
1994 | Bureau of Health Policy and Planning, the MoPH | Combination of physician to population ratio, service targeted and health demand approach | Increase production to fill in the expanded rural health services. A Collaborative Project to Increase Production of Rural Doctors was decided by the Cabinet to produce 300 more doctors per year |
1995-1996 | Bureau of Health Policy and Planning, Praboromrachanok Institute for Human Resource Development, the MoPH and Health Systems Research Institute | Combination of physician to population ratio and service targeted and health demand approach | Adequate supply by 2015 |
1996 | Thailand Development Research Institute | Health demand approach | Adequate supply by 2020 |
1996 | Bureau of Policy and Strategy, the MoPH | Cohort analysis, annual loss rate method and modified physician to population ratio | The supply of physicians by the year 2020 will be 44,028 (using high-loss scenario) to 47,519 (using low-loss scenario) |
2001 | The 7th National Conference on Medical Education | Health demand approach and physician to population ratio | Increase production to reach an optimal ratio of one physician to 1,500 population by 2021 |
2004 | Bureau of Policy and Strategy, the MoPH | Physician to population ratio | Increase production to reach an optimal ratio of one physician to 1,800 population; 6,000 additional more physicians should be produced in 2006 |