The accuracy of general practitioner workforce projections

Van Greuningen, Malou; Batenburg, Ronald S; Van der Velden, Lud FJ

doi:10.1186/1478-4491-11-31

Human Resources for Health

Table 1 Years and time periods on which observations are based and which are used to calculate the projections’ accuracy

From: The accuracy of general practitioner workforce projections

		5-year base period	10-year base period	15-year base period	MAPE_x
5-year projection horizon	Base years	1988 - 2001	1983 - 1996	1978 - 1991
	Base periods	1988 → 1993 –	1983 → 1993 –	1978 → 1993 –
	Base periods	2001 → 2006	1996 → 2006	1991 → 2006
	Launch years	1993 - 2006	1993 - 2006	1993 - 2006
	Projection horizons	1993 → 1998 –	1993 → 1998 –	1993 → 1998 –
	Projection horizons	2006 → 2011	2006 → 2011	2006 → 2011
	Target years	1998 - 2011	1998 - 2011	1998 - 2011
	MAPE_x,y	1.9 (14 tests)	3.0 (14 tests)	4.2 (14 tests)	3.0 (42 tests)
10-year projection horizon	Base years	1983 -1996	1978 - 1991	1973 - 1986
	Base periods	1983 → 1988 –	1978 → 1988 –	1973 → 1988 –
	Base periods	1996 → 2001	1991 → 2001	1986 → 2001
	Launch years	1988 - 2001	1988 - 2001	1988 - 2001
	Projection horizons	1988 → 1998 –	1988 → 1998 –	1988 → 1998 –
	Projection horizons	2001 → 2011	2001 → 2011	2001 → 2011
	Target years	1998 - 2011	1998 - 2011	1998 – 2011
	MAPE_x,y	4.9 (14 tests)	7.0 (14 tests)	9.1 (14 tests)	7.0 (42 tests)
15-year projection horizon	Base years	1978 - 1991	1973 - 1986	1968 – 1981
	Base periods	1978 → 1983 –	1973 → 1983 –	1968 → 1983 –
	Base periods	1991 → 1996	1986 → 1996	1981 → 1996
	Launch years	1983 - 1996	1983 - 1996	1983 - 1996
	Projection horizons	1983 → 1998 –	1983 → 1998 –	1983 → 1998 –
	Projection horizons	1996 → 2011	1996 → 2011	1996 → 2011
	Target years	1998 - 2011	1998 - 2011	1998 - 2011
	MAPE_x,y	9.0 (14 tests)	12.4 (14 tests)	14.9 (14 tests)	12.1 (42 tests)
	MAPE_y	5.3 (42 tests)	7.5 (42 tests)	9.4 (42 tests)

Base year = earliest data year; base period = interval between base year and launch year; launch year = most recent data year; projection horizon = interval between launch year and target year; target year = projection years; number of accuracy tests = units of comparison between observed and projected number of GPs; MAPE = mean absolute percentage error. Example: to project the number of GPs for the target year 2011 with a projection horizon of five years, the projection is based on GP stock data from 2006 (launch year). The flow data used in the projection is based on data from 2001 to 2006 (five-year base period). 2001 is the base year.

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ISSN: 1478-4491

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