Variables | Assumptions | Data source | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Supply side | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Inflow | Education | • No. of State-funded quotas 2012–2013 | Constant at the 2012–2013 level (‘as is’ scenario) | MIUR |
 Stocks | Regional public NHS | • Headcounts of physicians by sex, age and specialization declared | Appropriate at 2011 levels for all stocks | Regional databases |
Private (no. 1,021) | Ad hoc survey | |||
Conventioned (GPs, district paediatrics) | According to recommended population ratios | Normative | ||
 Outflows | Regional public NHS | • Sex-, age- and specialization-specific exit rates | Leaving the regional NHS due to retirement, shift to the private sector and move to other regions before retirement. Observed exit rates in 2001–2011 by cause apply each year | Regional databases of 2001–2011 observations |
Private sector and self-employed personnel | • Age-specific exit rates | Females leave at 67 and males at 70 | Normative | |
Demand side | Â | Â | Â | Â |
 Population | Demographic projections | • Sex, 5-year band population projections to 2030 | Central scenario | Regional statistics bureau |
 Service utilization | Outpatient activities (ASA) plus hospital discharges (SDO) by specialization provided to patients between 2002 and 2011 | • Patients’ sex, 5-year bands, consumption rates by specialization | 2002–2011 outpatient and inpatient utilization rate trend line extrapolation and projection to 2021. Expected regional age/sex cohorts will consume more or less of each specialization service and a different mix of outpatient visits and hospital discharges | Regional databases (ASA, SDO) |
 Hospital beds | Public hospital beds by specialization at 2011 | • No. of public hospital beds and optimal staffing standards per specialization | Physician-to-hospital bed standards define the future requirement of specialists | National guidelines |