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Table 1 Main supply and demand variables, assumptions and data source

From: Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Variables

Assumptions

Data source

Supply side

    

 Inflow

Education

• No. of State-funded quotas 2012–2013

Constant at the 2012–2013 level (‘as is’ scenario)

MIUR

 Stocks

Regional public NHS

• Headcounts of physicians by sex, age and specialization declared

Appropriate at 2011 levels for all stocks

Regional databases

Private (no. 1,021)

Ad hoc survey

Conventioned (GPs, district paediatrics)

According to recommended population ratios

Normative

 Outflows

Regional public NHS

• Sex-, age- and specialization-specific exit rates

Leaving the regional NHS due to retirement, shift to the private sector and move to other regions before retirement. Observed exit rates in 2001–2011 by cause apply each year

Regional databases of 2001–2011 observations

Private sector and self-employed personnel

• Age-specific exit rates

Females leave at 67 and males at 70

Normative

Demand side

    

 Population

Demographic projections

• Sex, 5-year band population projections to 2030

Central scenario

Regional statistics bureau

 Service utilization

Outpatient activities (ASA) plus hospital discharges (SDO) by specialization provided to patients between 2002 and 2011

• Patients’ sex, 5-year bands, consumption rates by specialization

2002–2011 outpatient and inpatient utilization rate trend line extrapolation and projection to 2021. Expected regional age/sex cohorts will consume more or less of each specialization service and a different mix of outpatient visits and hospital discharges

Regional databases (ASA, SDO)

 Hospital beds

Public hospital beds by specialization at 2011

• No. of public hospital beds and optimal staffing standards per specialization

Physician-to-hospital bed standards define the future requirement of specialists

National guidelines