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Table 1 Main supply and demand variables, assumptions and data source

From: Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Variables Assumptions Data source
Supply side     
 Inflow Education • No. of State-funded quotas 2012–2013 Constant at the 2012–2013 level (‘as is’ scenario) MIUR
 Stocks Regional public NHS • Headcounts of physicians by sex, age and specialization declared Appropriate at 2011 levels for all stocks Regional databases
Private (no. 1,021) Ad hoc survey
Conventioned (GPs, district paediatrics) According to recommended population ratios Normative
 Outflows Regional public NHS • Sex-, age- and specialization-specific exit rates Leaving the regional NHS due to retirement, shift to the private sector and move to other regions before retirement. Observed exit rates in 2001–2011 by cause apply each year Regional databases of 2001–2011 observations
Private sector and self-employed personnel • Age-specific exit rates Females leave at 67 and males at 70 Normative
Demand side     
 Population Demographic projections • Sex, 5-year band population projections to 2030 Central scenario Regional statistics bureau
 Service utilization Outpatient activities (ASA) plus hospital discharges (SDO) by specialization provided to patients between 2002 and 2011 • Patients’ sex, 5-year bands, consumption rates by specialization 2002–2011 outpatient and inpatient utilization rate trend line extrapolation and projection to 2021. Expected regional age/sex cohorts will consume more or less of each specialization service and a different mix of outpatient visits and hospital discharges Regional databases (ASA, SDO)
 Hospital beds Public hospital beds by specialization at 2011 • No. of public hospital beds and optimal staffing standards per specialization Physician-to-hospital bed standards define the future requirement of specialists National guidelines