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Table 2 Demand increase at 2030 by scenario and training gaps w.r.t. national residency training policy

From: Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Area

Selected specialization

Stock at 2011 a

Demand % increase at 2030

Training gaps in 2030 w.r.t. ‘as is’ national grants

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Scenario 3

Surgical

General surgery

580

12.0

12.6

8.8

49

46

68

Gynaecology and obstetrics (Figure 1a)

540

12.0

8.5

6.1

19

38

51

Neurosurgery

93

12.0

18.7

53.1

-34

-40

-45

Ophthalmology

322

12.0

18.3

17.4

-76

-96

-93

Orthopaedic and trauma

623

12.0

15.4

7.8

81

60

107

Otorinolaringoiatry

201

12.0

19.3

12.3

1

-14

0

Urology

191

12.0

21.5

7.1

3

-15

13

Cardiac surgery

44

12.0

13.8

6.9

53

53

56

Medical

Geriatrics

237

20.3

31.2

16.4

46

20

55

Internal medicine (Figure 1b)

997

12.0

15.4

9.9

-344

-378

-323

Emergency medicine

595

12.0

10.6

10.0

-260

-252

-248

Infant neuropsychiatry

171

17.5

36.7

37.9

2

-31

-33

Psychiatry

590

11.1

4.5

3.6

-63

-25

-19

Gastroenterology

159

12.0

34.3

25.9

31

-5

9

Cardiology

553

12.0

40.0

15.6

101

-54

81

Respiratory diseases

163

12.0

27.4

17.9

85

60

75

Nephrology (Figure 1c)

145

12.0

45.9

28.1

129

80

106

Rheumatology

36

12.0

34.8

34.3

64

56

56

Services

Anatomopathology

130

12.0

15.4

0.0

58

54

74

Radio-diagnostics

729

12.0

32.4

32.3

148

-1

1

Radiotherapy

68

12.0

41.3

40.6

115

95

95

Anaesthesiology (Figure 1d)

1,009

12.0

35.2

22.2

171

-63

69

Physical and rehabilitation medicine

262

12.0

2.4

1.7

24

49

51

  1. aIncludes all the medical stocks: public, private and self-employed outpatient specialists.