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Table 2 Demand increase at 2030 by scenario and training gaps w.r.t. national residency training policy

From: Forecasting future needs and optimal allocation of medical residency positions: the Emilia-Romagna Region case study

Area Selected specialization Stock at 2011 a Demand % increase at 2030 Training gaps in 2030 w.r.t. ‘as is’ national grants
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Surgical General surgery 580 12.0 12.6 8.8 49 46 68
Gynaecology and obstetrics (Figure 1a) 540 12.0 8.5 6.1 19 38 51
Neurosurgery 93 12.0 18.7 53.1 -34 -40 -45
Ophthalmology 322 12.0 18.3 17.4 -76 -96 -93
Orthopaedic and trauma 623 12.0 15.4 7.8 81 60 107
Otorinolaringoiatry 201 12.0 19.3 12.3 1 -14 0
Urology 191 12.0 21.5 7.1 3 -15 13
Cardiac surgery 44 12.0 13.8 6.9 53 53 56
Medical Geriatrics 237 20.3 31.2 16.4 46 20 55
Internal medicine (Figure 1b) 997 12.0 15.4 9.9 -344 -378 -323
Emergency medicine 595 12.0 10.6 10.0 -260 -252 -248
Infant neuropsychiatry 171 17.5 36.7 37.9 2 -31 -33
Psychiatry 590 11.1 4.5 3.6 -63 -25 -19
Gastroenterology 159 12.0 34.3 25.9 31 -5 9
Cardiology 553 12.0 40.0 15.6 101 -54 81
Respiratory diseases 163 12.0 27.4 17.9 85 60 75
Nephrology (Figure 1c) 145 12.0 45.9 28.1 129 80 106
Rheumatology 36 12.0 34.8 34.3 64 56 56
Services Anatomopathology 130 12.0 15.4 0.0 58 54 74
Radio-diagnostics 729 12.0 32.4 32.3 148 -1 1
Radiotherapy 68 12.0 41.3 40.6 115 95 95
Anaesthesiology (Figure 1d) 1,009 12.0 35.2 22.2 171 -63 69
Physical and rehabilitation medicine 262 12.0 2.4 1.7 24 49 51
  1. aIncludes all the medical stocks: public, private and self-employed outpatient specialists.