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Table 3 Projections of the nursing workforce in the public and mission health sectors in 2010, based on findings in 2005

From: Public sector nurses in Swaziland: can the downturn be reversed?

  Scenario mid-2010 based on 2004 estimates* ART scale-up ...plus reduced emigration ...plus increased foreign recruitment ...plus doubled training output All measures combined
Total nurses in the public and mission sectors by mid 2010 426 474 734 618 538 974
Total inflow 560 480 480 660 560 740
Training output 560 480 480 480 560 560
Immigration 0 0 0 180 0 180
Total outflow 937 764 504 800 780 524
Normal retirement¶ 82 77 87 84 75 95
Retirement/death due to AIDS§ 155 87 122 117 105 134
Emigration 700 600 295 600 600 295
Total loss between 2004 and 2010 377 284 24 140 220 -216
  1. * Column taken from Table 2 (under the 2004 assumption that no HRH measures are taken)
  2. ¶ Rate calculated at 2%
  3. § Based on the assumption of 42% HIV prevalence; 10% of HIV+ people have AIDS and need ART; one third of those in need are put on ART (i.e. the current rate of ART scale-up)