Public sector nurses in Swaziland: can the downturn be reversed?

Table 3 Projections of the nursing workforce in the public and mission health sectors in 2010, based on findings in 2005

	Scenario mid-2010 based on 2004 estimates*	ART scale-up	...plus reduced emigration	...plus increased foreign recruitment	...plus doubled training output	All measures combined
Total nurses in the public and mission sectors by mid 2010	426	474	734	618	538	974
Total inflow	560	480	480	660	560	740
Training output	560	480	480	480	560	560
Immigration	0	0	0	180	0	180
Total outflow	937	764	504	800	780	524
Normal retirement¶	82	77	87	84	75	95
Retirement/death due to AIDS§	155	87	122	117	105	134
Emigration	700	600	295	600	600	295
Total loss between 2004 and 2010	377	284	24	140	220	-216

* Column taken from Table 2 (under the 2004 assumption that no HRH measures are taken)
¶ Rate calculated at 2%
§ Based on the assumption of 42% HIV prevalence; 10% of HIV+ people have AIDS and need ART; one third of those in need are put on ART (i.e. the current rate of ART scale-up)

ISSN: 1478-4491