Table 2 Projected and actual physician headcounts in selected countries
From: Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?
| Author | Country | Workforce | Models and analysis | Base year | Time lag | Projected | Actual | Error margin | Source of data |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Persaud et al. [10, 11] | Ontario, Canada | Ophthalmologists | Multiple regression | 2005 | 10 | 418 ± 10 | 387 | -5.4% | Ontario Physician Human Resource Data Centre https://www.ophrdc.org/ |
| Joyce [18] | Australia | All MDs | Stochastic modeling | 2001 |
2 3 |
54 294 55 000 |
56 207 59 004 |
3.5% 7.3% | Australian Institute of Health and Welfare http://www.aihw.gov.au/ |
| Doan [25] | France | All MDs | Deterministic | 1982 | 6 | 180 691 | 164 667 | 9.7% | National Medical Council |
| 1985 | 9 | 193 160 | 184 156 | 4.7% | National Medical Council | ||||
| 1988 | 9 | 197 406 | 189 802 | 4.0% | National Medical Council | ||||
| 1992 | 2 | 185 260 | 184 516 | 0.4% | National Medical Council | ||||
| 7 | 192 779 | 196 968 | -2.0% | National Medical Council | |||||
| 12 | 195 714 | 211 425 | -7.4% | National Medical Council |