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Table 2 Projected and actual physician headcounts in selected countries

From: Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

Author Country Workforce Models and analysis Base year Time lag Projected Actual Error margin Source of data
Persaud et al. [10, 11] Ontario, Canada Ophthalmologists Multiple regression 2005 10 418 ± 10 387 -5.4% Ontario Physician Human Resource Data Centre https://www.ophrdc.org/
Joyce [18] Australia All MDs Stochastic modeling 2001 2 3 54 294 55 000 56 207 59 004 3.5% 7.3% Australian Institute of Health and Welfare http://www.aihw.gov.au/
Doan [25] France All MDs Deterministic 1982 6 180 691 164 667 9.7% National Medical Council
     1985 9 193 160 184 156 4.7% National Medical Council
     1988 9 197 406 189 802 4.0% National Medical Council
     1992 2 185 260 184 516 0.4% National Medical Council
      7 192 779 196 968 -2.0% National Medical Council
      12 195 714 211 425 -7.4% National Medical Council