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Table 4 Methodological and conceptual issues in forecasting models

From: Physician supply forecast: better than peering in a crystal ball?

Items

Issues

Model units

• Headcounts do not reflect variation in effective workforce.

• FTE measured in working hours can translate into a variable effective workforce.

• FTE defined in reference to the most active physician category makes the assumption that the activity level in that category is relevant.

Data quality

• Routine data are useful, but provide generally limited information.

• Various data sources coexist, with inconsistencies between them.

• Qualitative data for in-depth understanding of trends is often lacking.

Categories of resources

• Computation of human resources requirements by specialty obviates professional interactions and skill mix.

• Assessing skill-mix requirements is a complex task and documentation is often lacking.

Supply parameters

• Information other than age, sex and services volume is often unavailable.

• Productivity is sensitive to the working and societal environment and is rapidly evolving.

Demand parameters

• Assessing the impact of new technologies, emerging pathologies and demographic changes requires a large quantity of data and expertise that are often unavailable.

• Level and mode of health care utilization are sensitive to the environment and are rapidly evolving.

Modeling

• Deterministic models are likely to generate inaccuracies without providing a means to evaluate them.

• Regression modeling with stochastic simulation can be innovative in the HRH field but background is lacking

• Regular updating of data is paramount but resource-consuming.