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Table 3 Results of the logistic regression analysis for specialty changes in the classes of 1970, 1980 and 1990

From: The distribution and transitions of physicians in Japan: a 1974–2004 retrospective cohort study

   Odds ratios (95% confidence interval)
   Class of 1970
N = 2,706
Class of 1980
N = 6,326
Class of 1990
N = 6,994
Sex (base category; men) 1.5 (1.3 – 1.7) 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5)* 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)*
Age at first registration ns ns ns
Specialty Paediatrics 1.8 (1.6 – 2.0)* 2.1 (2.0 – 2.2)* ns
(base category; internal medicine) General surgery 11.2 (11.1 – 11.3)* 7.2 (7.1 – 7.3)* 3.7 (3.6 – 3.8)*
  Neurosurgery 3.9 (3.6 – 4.2)* 2.5 (2.3 – 2.7)* ns
  Respiratory surgery   na 17.1 (16.6 – 17.6)*
  Cardiovascular surgery   11.6 (11.2 – 12.0)* 5.6 (5.4 – 5.8)*
  Paediatric surgery   11.3 (10.7 – 11.9)* 8.3 (7.7 – 8.9)*
  Orthopaedics 1.8 (1.7 – 1.9)* 1.4 (1.3 – 1.5)* ns
  Plastic surgery   3.9 (3.6 – 4.2)* ns
  Obstetrics and gynaecology ns ns 0.3 (0.1 – 0.5)*
  Ophthalmology ns 0.4 (0.2 – 0.6)* 0.2 (0.0 – 0.4)*
  Otolaryngology 0.5 (0.2 – 0.8) 0.6 (0.4 – 0.8)* 0.4 (0.2 – 0.6)*
  Dermatology ns ns 0.6 (0.4 – 0.8)
  Urology ns 2.0 (1.8 – 2.2)* ns
  Rehabilitation    7.9 (7.2 – 8.6)*
  Radiology 10.7 (10.3 – 11.1)* 4.8 (4.6 – 5.0)* 1.8 (1.6 – 2)*
  Anaesthesiology 8.0 (7.6 – 8.4)* 2.9 (2.8 – 3.0)* 1.7 (1.6 – 1.8)*
  Psychiatrics 2.7 (2.5 – 2.9)* 1.6 (1.5 – 1.7)* 1.1 (1.0 – 1.2)
  Others 69.4 (68.4 – 70.4)* 19.6 (19.3 – 19.9)* 13.9 (13.7 – 14.1)*
Working area Intermediate area 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) ns ns
(base category; urban area) Rural area ns ns ns
Work facility Hospitals 0.7 (0.5 – 0.9) 0.6 (0.5 – 0.7)* 0.5 (0.3 – 0.7)*
(base category; clinics) Others 0.1 (-1.0 – 1.2) 0.1 (-0.3 – 0.5)* 0.3 (0.0 – 0.6)*
  1. * p < 0.01
  2. ns: not significant; na: not available
  3. R2 for the analyses of the classes of 1970, 1980 and 1990 were 0.24, 019 and 0.17, respectively.