Table 3 Projected eye care demand and required ophthalmologists up to 2040
From: Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore
Outcome | Base year | Projected | % change from 2015 to 2040 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2010 | 2015 | 2020 | 2025 | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | ||
Eye care demand | ||||||||
Business-as-usual | 568 200 [445 000–765 700] | 718 500 [537 500–927 500] | 887 200 [613 600–1 113 500] | 1 069 700 [709 400–1 330 200] | 1 251 800 [804 200–1 538 700] | 1 418 600 [891 400–1 724 100] | 1 557 900 [971 100–1 866 800] | 117% |
Current policy | 568 200 [471 200–734 700] | 733 200 [603 800–905 600] | 997 500 [828 800–1 166 500] | 1 296 000 [1 061 500–1 445 700] | 1 582 500 [1 302 400–1 715 600] | 1 828 500 [1 536 400–1 939 000] | 2 019 000 [1 737 300–2 112 800] | 175% |
New model of care | 568 200 [526 200–746 000] | 733 200 [666 100–914 300] | 965 400 [853 400–1 148 300] | 1 229 000 [1 058 500–1 395 000] | 1 477 200 [1 259 600–1 621 000] | 1 682 100 [1 449 400–1 801 600] | 1 830 600 [1 592 900–1 929 800] | 150% |
Moderated workload | 568 200 [526 200–749 500] | 733 200 [666 400–917 900] | 965 400 [850 000–1 150 900] | 1 229 000 [1 054 300–1 399 500] | 1 477 200 [1 256 100–1 624 200] | 1 682 100 [1 446 900–1 803 900] | 1 830 600 [1 592 900–1 930 700] | 150% |
Required ophthalmologists | ||||||||
Business-as-usual | 104 [88–152] | 141 [125–216] | 174 [143–260] | 210 [166–310] | 245 [188–359] | 278 [208–402] | 305 [227–436] | 117% |
Current policy | 104 [95–134] | 144 [131–178] | 196 [173–229] | 254 [220–283] | 310 [268–336] | 359 [312–380] | 396 [351–414] | 175% |
New model of care | 104 [96–136] | 144 [131–179] | 189 [167–225] | 241 [208–274] | 290 [247–318] | 330 [284–353] | 359 [312–378] | 150% |
Moderated workload | 104 [96–137] | 145 [131–181] | 196 [173–234] | 257 [221–293] | 319 [271–351] | 375 [323–402] | 422 [367–445] | 192% |