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Table 3 Projected eye care demand and required ophthalmologists up to 2040

From: Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore

Outcome Base year Projected % change from 2015 to 2040
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Eye care demand
 Business-as-usual 568 200 [445 000–765 700] 718 500 [537 500–927 500] 887 200 [613 600–1 113 500] 1 069 700 [709 400–1 330 200] 1 251 800 [804 200–1 538 700] 1 418 600 [891 400–1 724 100] 1 557 900 [971 100–1 866 800] 117%
 Current policy 568 200 [471 200–734 700] 733 200 [603 800–905 600] 997 500 [828 800–1 166 500] 1 296 000 [1 061 500–1 445 700] 1 582 500 [1 302 400–1 715 600] 1 828 500 [1 536 400–1 939 000] 2 019 000 [1 737 300–2 112 800] 175%
 New model of care 568 200 [526 200–746 000] 733 200 [666 100–914 300] 965 400 [853 400–1 148 300] 1 229 000 [1 058 500–1 395 000] 1 477 200 [1 259 600–1 621 000] 1 682 100 [1 449 400–1 801 600] 1 830 600 [1 592 900–1 929 800] 150%
Moderated workload 568 200 [526 200–749 500] 733 200 [666 400–917 900] 965 400 [850 000–1 150 900] 1 229 000 [1 054 300–1 399 500] 1 477 200 [1 256 100–1 624 200] 1 682 100 [1 446 900–1 803 900] 1 830 600 [1 592 900–1 930 700] 150%
Required ophthalmologists
 Business-as-usual 104 [88–152] 141 [125–216] 174 [143–260] 210 [166–310] 245 [188–359] 278 [208–402] 305 [227–436] 117%
 Current policy 104 [95–134] 144 [131–178] 196 [173–229] 254 [220–283] 310 [268–336] 359 [312–380] 396 [351–414] 175%
 New model of care 104 [96–136] 144 [131–179] 189 [167–225] 241 [208–274] 290 [247–318] 330 [284–353] 359 [312–378] 150%
 Moderated workload 104 [96–137] 145 [131–181] 196 [173–234] 257 [221–293] 319 [271–351] 375 [323–402] 422 [367–445] 192%
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