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Table 2 Simulated HRH shortfalls or surpluses by profession and country for 2030—based on demographic change alone

From: Simulating future supply of and requirements for human resources for health in high-income OECD countries

Country Profession Projected shortfall (−) or surplus (+) Country Profession Projected shortfall (−) or surplus (+)
Australia Midwives −9 068 Italy Midwives −1 779
Nurses −144 654 Nurses −153 147
Physicians −23 393 Physicians −89 467
Austria Midwives −238 Japan Midwives −7 086
Nurses +13 505 Nurses +58 188
Physicians −12 584 Physicians −7 579
Belgium Midwives −1 428 Luxembourg Midwives −112
Nurses −65 590 Nurses −5 156
Physicians −5 365 Physicians −1 252
Canada Midwives −437 Netherlands Midwives −773
Nurses −84 719 Nurses −31 068
Physicians +8 108 Physicians −8 369
Chile Midwives −4 735 New Zealand Midwives +1 271
Nurses   Nurses −10 035
Physicians   Physicians +5 297
Czech Republic Midwives −544 Norway Midwives −1 192
Nurses −31 975 Nurses −47 886
Physicians −9 195 Physicians −13 057
Denmark Midwives −202 Poland Midwives +2 042
Nurses −46 540 Nurses −48 036
Physicians −475 Physicians −16 524
Estonia Midwives +70 Portugal Midwives −752
Nurses −6 319 Nurses −8 538
Physicians −3 375 Physicians −13 285
Finland Midwives +622 Slovakia Midwives −126
Nurses −1 361 Nurses +8 304
Physicians −956 Physicians −5 238
France Midwives −3 485 Slovenia Midwives +180
Nurses −177 497 Nurses +13 626
Physicians −83 950 Physicians −82
Germany Midwives −2 058 South Korea Midwives −474
Nurses −135 236 Nurses +104 127
Physicians −73 130 Physicians −27 861
Greece Midwives   Spain Midwives +54
Nurses   Nurses −85 858
Physicians −33 761 Physicians −27 341
Hungary Midwives −510 Sweden Midwives −3 576
Nurses +11 027 Nurses −57 574
Physicians −4 398 Physicians −9 352
Iceland Midwives −174 Switzerland Midwives −262
Nurses −1 294 Nurses −4 690
Physicians −499 Physicians −14 581
Ireland Midwives −5 618 United Kingdom Midwives −2 225
Nurses −32 498 Nurses −36 240
Physicians +7 026 Physicians +33 318
Israel Midwives −781 United States Midwives −2 630
Nurses −24 181 Nurses −143 302
Physicians −23 789 Physicians −303 760
  1. These simulations are not to be taken as predictions about the future. Should large shortfalls or surpluses appear on the planning horizon, it is likely that substantial changes to these variables—such as increases or reductions in training capacity or levels of service provision—will be made; indeed the purpose of performing these simulations is to inform such planning. The shortfalls or surpluses shown here are measured relative to any shortfalls or surpluses that may already exist for these professions in these countries. In these simulations, all other planning parameters are held constant. Analyses demonstrating the sensitivity of these simulations to changes in other planning parameters are provided elsewhere in this report.