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Table 2 Simulated HRH shortfalls or surpluses by profession and country for 2030—based on demographic change alone

From: Simulating future supply of and requirements for human resources for health in high-income OECD countries

Country

Profession

Projected shortfall (−) or surplus (+)

Country

Profession

Projected shortfall (−) or surplus (+)

Australia

Midwives

−9 068

Italy

Midwives

−1 779

Nurses

−144 654

Nurses

−153 147

Physicians

−23 393

Physicians

−89 467

Austria

Midwives

−238

Japan

Midwives

−7 086

Nurses

+13 505

Nurses

+58 188

Physicians

−12 584

Physicians

−7 579

Belgium

Midwives

−1 428

Luxembourg

Midwives

−112

Nurses

−65 590

Nurses

−5 156

Physicians

−5 365

Physicians

−1 252

Canada

Midwives

−437

Netherlands

Midwives

−773

Nurses

−84 719

Nurses

−31 068

Physicians

+8 108

Physicians

−8 369

Chile

Midwives

−4 735

New Zealand

Midwives

+1 271

Nurses

 

Nurses

−10 035

Physicians

 

Physicians

+5 297

Czech Republic

Midwives

−544

Norway

Midwives

−1 192

Nurses

−31 975

Nurses

−47 886

Physicians

−9 195

Physicians

−13 057

Denmark

Midwives

−202

Poland

Midwives

+2 042

Nurses

−46 540

Nurses

−48 036

Physicians

−475

Physicians

−16 524

Estonia

Midwives

+70

Portugal

Midwives

−752

Nurses

−6 319

Nurses

−8 538

Physicians

−3 375

Physicians

−13 285

Finland

Midwives

+622

Slovakia

Midwives

−126

Nurses

−1 361

Nurses

+8 304

Physicians

−956

Physicians

−5 238

France

Midwives

−3 485

Slovenia

Midwives

+180

Nurses

−177 497

Nurses

+13 626

Physicians

−83 950

Physicians

−82

Germany

Midwives

−2 058

South Korea

Midwives

−474

Nurses

−135 236

Nurses

+104 127

Physicians

−73 130

Physicians

−27 861

Greece

Midwives

 

Spain

Midwives

+54

Nurses

 

Nurses

−85 858

Physicians

−33 761

Physicians

−27 341

Hungary

Midwives

−510

Sweden

Midwives

−3 576

Nurses

+11 027

Nurses

−57 574

Physicians

−4 398

Physicians

−9 352

Iceland

Midwives

−174

Switzerland

Midwives

−262

Nurses

−1 294

Nurses

−4 690

Physicians

−499

Physicians

−14 581

Ireland

Midwives

−5 618

United Kingdom

Midwives

−2 225

Nurses

−32 498

Nurses

−36 240

Physicians

+7 026

Physicians

+33 318

Israel

Midwives

−781

United States

Midwives

−2 630

Nurses

−24 181

Nurses

−143 302

Physicians

−23 789

Physicians

−303 760

  1. These simulations are not to be taken as predictions about the future. Should large shortfalls or surpluses appear on the planning horizon, it is likely that substantial changes to these variables—such as increases or reductions in training capacity or levels of service provision—will be made; indeed the purpose of performing these simulations is to inform such planning. The shortfalls or surpluses shown here are measured relative to any shortfalls or surpluses that may already exist for these professions in these countries. In these simulations, all other planning parameters are held constant. Analyses demonstrating the sensitivity of these simulations to changes in other planning parameters are provided elsewhere in this report.