Table 3 Summary of FTE GP estimates for South Australia for the single base, policy and non-policy scenarios, 2013, 2023 and 2033
Type of scenario | Scenario | Â | 2013 | 2023 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Base | 1. Base | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (163, 271) | 163 (68, 276) | 28 (−93, 260) | ||
Non-policy scenarios | 2. Reduced illness in the population | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 |
Demand | 1452 | 1787 | 2155 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 219 (158, 256) | 184 (81, 305) | 102 (−34, 315) | ||
3. Increased GP visits | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 | |
Demand | 1501 | 1912 | 2394 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 171 (128, 200) | 59 (−68, 175) | −136 (−301, 106) | ||
4. Reduced GP participation | Supply | 1671 | 1955 | 2237 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (206, 268) | 147 (37, 255) | 7 (−215, 232) | ||
Policy scenarios | 5. Increased role substitution | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 |
Demand | 1291 | 1628 | 2007 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 380 (340, 414) | 344 224, 456) | 251 (63, 482) | ||
6. Increased preventative activity | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 | |
Demand | 1436 | 1809 | 2231 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (195, 270) | 162 (43, 275) | 27 (−161, 259) | ||
7. Increased GP training positions | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2371 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (163, 271) | 163 (68, 276) | 141 (20, 374) | ||
8. Reduced IMG recruitment | Supply | 1671 | 1896 | 2115 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (163, 271) | 87 (−7, 202) | −114 (−236, 114) |