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Table 5 Estimated and projected global needs-based and demand-based shortages of health workers, by World Bank income group and WHO region, 2013 and 2030 [shortages are positive, surpluses are negative]

From: Forecasting imbalances in the global health labor market and devising policy responses

  Needs-based shortages (Need-Supply) Demand-based shortages (Demand-Supply)
2013 2030 2013 2030
World Bank Income Group (# of countries)
 Low (29) 4 202 379 5 746 161 − 55 173 15 498
 Lower-middle (44) 9 003 163 6 495 262 1 029 616 3 723 638
 Upper-middle (46) 3 658 626 1 746 981 5 276 413 11 929 697
 High (46) 81 361 74 838 305 367 − 167 623
WHO Region (# of countries)
 Africa (43) 4 194 741 6 088 186 − 768 647 − 661 859
 Americas (28) 708 021 503 870 441 453 2 545 754
 Eastern Mediterranean (15) 1 569 814 1 508 924 367 081 1 590 107
 Europe (50) 78 394 57 749 1 485 608 1 355 508
 South-East Asia (8) 6 661 765 4 547 443 192 068 2 038 195
 Western Pacific (21) 3 732 794 1 357 071 4 838 663 8 633 507
World (165) 16 945 529 14 063 242 6 556 224 15 501 211
  1. Sources: [1, 2]
  2. Notes: Health worker refers to physicians, nurses/midwives, and other health workers. For demand-based shortages, positive totals represent shortages while negative totals represent surpluses. The total needs-based shortages reported in this table are lower than the totals reported by the WHO report because this table computes needs-based shortages for 165 countries (to correspond with the demand estimates) whereas the WHO report computed needs-based shortages for 210 countries