Table 2 Model parameters used in the simulation model

Population module

Healthy population (HP)

Person

9,307,085 (0–14), 33,319,965 (15–59), 3,661,054 (60+)

The 2015 Health And Welfare Survey, Thailand National Statistical Office

Population with simple illnesses (SP)

Person

2,283,981 (0–14), 9,478,869 (15–59), 5,951,453 (60+)

The 2015 Health And Welfare Survey, Thailand National Statistical Office

Population with complex illnesses (CP)

Person

414,449 (0–14), 2,029,071 (15–59), 717,808 (60+)

The 2015 Health And Welfare Survey, Thailand National Statistical Office

Birth ratio

Per year

0.0127

Institute for Population and Social Research, Mahidol University

Death ratio

Per year

0.00113 (0–14, HP), 0.00113 (0–14, SP), 0.00226 (0–14, CP), 0.00285 (15–59, HP), 0.00285 (15–59, SP), 0.0057 (15–59, CP), 0.02844 (60+, HP), 0.02844 (60+, SP), 0.05688 (60+, CP)

Burden of Disease (BOD), IHPP Thailand and Model validation by the authors

Progression ratio

Per year

0.05 (0–14), 0.05 (15–59), 0.06 (60+)

Expert opinions from GMB sessions and Model validation by the authors

Curing effect of care

Dimensionless

0.5 (acute care to CP, 0–14), 0.4 (ambulatory care to CP, 0–14), 0.5 (acute care to CP, 15–59), 0.35 (ambulatory care to CP, 15–59), 0.2 (acute care to CP, 60+), 0.05 (ambulatory care to CP, 60+), 0.5 (from SP to HP, 0–14), 0.5 (from SP to HP, 15–59), 0.25 (from SP to HP, 60+)

Expert opinions from GMB sessions and Model validation by the authors

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL)

Dimensionless

1 (HP), 0.8 (SP), 0.75 (CP with care access), 0.5 (CP without care access)

Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Treatment duration

Year

1

Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Incidence ratio adjustment from access to healthcare

Dimensionless

1–1.2

Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Incidence ratio adjustment from health literacy

Dimensionless

0.5–1

Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Healthcare module

Actual position (public sector)

Person

17,892 (MD, MoPH), 106,300 (NS, MoPH), 8449 (PY, MoPH), 3761 (MT, MoPH), 2502 (PT, MoPH), 33,300 (PH, MoPH), 212 (CPsy, MoPH), 8891 (MD, other public), 19,923 (NS, other public), 1024 (PY, other public), 781 (MT, other public), 309 (PT, other public), 41 (PH, other public), 49 (CPsy, other public)

MoPH and HRH survey by the authors

Actual position (private sector)

14,641 (MD), 18,444 (NS), 642 (PY), 500 (MT), 828 (PT), 0 (PH), 0 (CPsy)

MoPH and HRH survey by the authors

Actual position (local government)

911 (MD), 4660 (NS), 258 (PY), 87 (MT), 109 (PT), 183 (PH), 74 (CPsy)

MoPH and HRH survey by the authors

Demand for healthcare

Episode/person/year

2 (primary care, 0–14. HP), 2 (primary care, 15–59, HP), 2 (primary care, 60+, HP), 9 (primary care, 0–14, SP), 6 (primary care, 15–59, SP), 12 (primary care, 60+, SP), 9 (primary care, 0–14, SP), 6 (primary care, 15–59, SO), 12 (ambulatory care, 0–14, CP), 3 (ambulatory care, 15–59, CP), 12 (ambulatory care, 60+, CP), 3 (acute care, all ages, CP), 1 (emergency care, all ages, CP), 40 (intermediate care, all ages, CP), 40 (palliative care, all ages, CP), 12 (long-term care, all ages, CP)

Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Cost per service (public sector)

Baht/episode

740 (primary care), 7583 (acute care), 2000 (emergency care), 780 (ambulatory care), 1211 (intermediate care), 2000 (palliative care), 3840 (long-term care)

Chiangchaisakultha et al. [31], and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Cost per service (private sector)

Baht/episode

15,000 (primary care), 84,734 (acute care), 8000 (emergency care), 3480 (ambulatory care), 2500 (intermediate care), 4000 (palliative care), 8000 (long-term care)

Pongpattracha et al. [32] and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

HRH production cost per head

Baht/person

2,340,000 (MD), 600,000 (PY), 480,000 (NS, MT, PT, PH, CPSY)

Praboromarajchanok for Health Workforce Development, MoPH

Labor cost per head

Baht/person/per year

1,060,140 (MD), 463,716 (NS), 501,408 (PY), 382,548 (MT), 283,128 (PT), 295,440 (CPSY)

Chiangchaisakultha et al. [33] and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

The targeted number of public health officers

Person

50,000

Expert opinions from GMB sessions (estimated from the desirable ratio of public health practitioner per population of 1:1250)

Healthcare team (public sector—central government)

Team

4150 (primary care, MoPH), 0 (primary care, other public), 3345 (acute care, MoPH), 499 (acute care, other public), 1280 (emergency care, MoPH), 398 (emergency care, other public), 292 (intermediate care, MoPH), 94 (intermediate care, other public), 292 (intermediate care, MoPH), 128 (palliative care, MoPH), 38 (palliative care, other public), 4278 (long-term care, MoPH), 0 (long-term care, other public), 3741 (ambulatory care, MoPH), 616 (ambulatory care, other public)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Healthcare team (public sector—local government)

Team

76 (primary care), 70 (acute care), 37 (emergency care), 33 (intermediate care), 0 (palliative care), 16 (long-term care), 158 (ambulatory care)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Healthcare team (private sector)

Team

100 (primary care), 2153 (acute care), 323 (emergency care), 94 (intermediate care), 10 (palliative care), 0 (long-term care), 3367 (ambulatory care)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, primary care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0000252604 (MD), 0.0001388889 (NS), 0.0000063368 (PY), 0.0000025347 (MT), 0.0000757813 (PH)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, acute care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0100000000 (MD), 0.0100000000 (NS), 0.0007118056 (PY), 0.0002847222 (MT), 0.0002372685 (PT)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, emergency care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0006076389 (MD), 0.0007638889 (NS), 0.0000781250 (PY), 0.0000312500 (MT)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, intermediate care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0000781250 (MD), 0.0003125000 (NS), 0.0015625000 (PT), 0.0003125000 (PH)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, palliative and end-of-life care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0001562500 (MD), 0.0007812500 (NS), 0.0003125000 (PY), 0.0003125000 (PT), 0.0007812500 (PH)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, long-term care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0002604167 (MD), 0.0007812500 (NS), 0.0002604167 (NS), 0.0007812500 (PT), 0.0007812500 (PH)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Practitioner per service (public sector, ambulatory care)

Full-time equivalent (FTE)

0.0000833333 (MD), 0.0001458333 (NS), 0.0000625000 (PT), 0.0000250000 (PH), 0.0000138889 (CPsy)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Services capacity per team (public sector)

Episode/team/year

32,850 (primary care), 570 (acute care), 1947 (emergency care), 730 (intermediate, long-term care, palliative care), 18,250 (ambulatory care)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Waiting time before leaving the profession

Year

3

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Healthcare team expansion ratio

Dimensionless

0–0.02

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Time allocation for administrative (not-patient care) work

Team expansion ratio

0.15–0.30

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Healthcare education and labor market module

The capacity of HRH training program

Person/year

2800 (MD), 10,000 (NS), 1900 (PY), 1100 (MT), 950 (PT), 12,258 (PH), 200 (CPsy)

The Permanent Secretary Office, MoPH and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Batch dropout ratio

Person/batch

0.03–0.20

Database of each professional council and Expert opinions from GMB sessions

Study period

Year

6 (MD), 5 (PY), 4 (NS, MT, PT, PH, CPsy)

Office of the Higher Education Commission, Ministry of Education

Workforce pool (not practicing, or working in other industries)

Person

672 (MD), 4545 (NS), PY (15,944), 952 (MT), 4569 (PT), 14,570 (PH), 0 (CPsy)

Expert opinions from GMB sessions