Figure 3

Projected surgeon-to-population ratios 2011–2050 in five selected countries. Projected surgeon-to-population ratios are presented for four countries that are currently below the VISION 2020 target but are projected to have increasing ratios between 2011 and 2020, and for one country (Togo) where the ratio is expected to decrease, even though it was close to meeting the VISION 2020 target in 2011. In three countries with increasing ratios, proportional practitioner population increases can eventually be expected to be outpaced by proportional general population increases and the VISION 2020 target will not be achieved without further intervention. Practitioner population growth is only expected to be rapid enough to replace the VISION 2020 practitioner shortage without intervention in Ethiopia by 2034.