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Table 2 Projected changes in Zambian HRH workforce from 2008 to 2018 under current conditions of production and attrition

From: Meeting human resources for health staffing goals by 2018: a quantitative analysis of policy options in Zambia

 

Doctors

Clinical officers

Nurses

Midwives

Total

Projected HRH workforce in 2018 ( = baseline + inflow - outflow)

792

1828

7508

4274

14 402

   Baseline HRH workforce

806

1236

6587

2050

10 679

   Inflow from 2008 to 2018 ( = a - b - c + d)

+ 768

+ 1275

+ 8359

+ 3628

+ 14 030

a Students that enrolled

+ 740

+ 1550

+ 10 831

+ 4830

+ 17 951

b Students that failed to graduate

- 74

- 155

- 463

- 375

- 1067

c Graduates not hired into public sector

- 98

- 120

- 2009

- 827

- 3054

d Hired from abroad

+ 200

+ 0

+ 0

+ 0

+ 200

   Outflow from 2008 to 2018 ( = e + f + g + h)

- 782

- 683

- 7438

- 1404

- 10 307

e Retire

- 78

- 68

- 337

- 140

- 623

f Involuntary attrition

- 454

- 396

- 1951

- 815

- 3616

g Voluntary attrition

- 250

- 219

- 1077

- 449

- 1995

h Go back to school

- 0

- 0

- 4073

- 0

- 4073

Total gain or loss between 2008 to 2018

- 14

+ 592

+ 921

+ 2224

+ 3723

Remaining staffing gap in 2018

986

1909

6545

477

9917

  1. This table contains outputs from the HRH projection model.