Table 2 Projected number of specialists required by IMSS, ISSSTE and SSA, 2030 (adjusted scenarios)
From: Projections of specialist physicians in Mexico: a key element in planning human resources for health
Year | Obstetrician-gynaecologist | Paediatrician | Internal medicine specialist | Surgeon | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Scenario | CI low | CI high | Scenario | CI low | CI high | Scenario | CI low | CI high | Scenario | CI low | CI high | |
IMSS | ||||||||||||
2010 | 2213 | 2172 | 2231 | 588 | 532 | 642 | 987 | 971 | 1004 | 4000 | 3526 | 4474 |
2015 | 2256 | 2194 | 2296 | 502 | 444 | 557 | 1117 | 1097 | 1138 | 4850 | 4363 | 5337 |
2020 | 2299 | 2216 | 2361 | 415 | 356 | 472 | 1247 | 1223 | 1273 | 5701 | 5198 | 6203 |
2025 | 2342 | 2237 | 2426 | 328 | 267 | 387 | 1376 | 1349 | 1407 | 6552 | 6030 | 7072 |
2030 | 2386 | 2258 | 2491 | 242 | 179 | 303 | 1506 | 1475 | 1542 | 7402 | 6861 | 7942 |
ISSSTE | ||||||||||||
2010 | 611 | 537 | 688 | 263 | 243 | 284 | 407 | 372 | 431 | 594 | 426 | 845 |
2015 | 739 | 501 | 991 | 247 | 224 | 271 | 458 | 399 | 505 | 595 | 424 | 844 |
2020 | 868 | 458 | 1302 | 230 | 205 | 258 | 509 | 424 | 583 | 590 | 422 | 843 |
2025 | 996 | 413 | 1614 | 214 | 186 | 245 | 559 | 447 | 661 | 554 | 420 | 842 |
2030 | 1125 | 369 | 1927 | 197 | 166 | 233 | 610 | 470 | 740 | 553 | 418 | 841 |
SSA | ||||||||||||
2010 | 2934 | 2709 | 3150 | 1574 | 1512 | 1639 | 1126 | 879 | 1372 | 2858 | 2611 | 3105 |
2015 | 3539 | 3308 | 3761 | 1903 | 1838 | 1969 | 1526 | 1272 | 1779 | 3455 | 3201 | 3708 |
2020 | 4144 | 3906 | 4374 | 2231 | 2164 | 2299 | 1927 | 1664 | 2187 | 4051 | 3788 | 4312 |
2025 | 4750 | 4503 | 4987 | 2559 | 2490 | 2630 | 2327 | 2055 | 2596 | 4648 | 4375 | 4918 |
2030 | 5355 | 5099 | 5602 | 2887 | 2816 | 2960 | 2727 | 2444 | 3007 | 5245 | 4961 | 5524 |