Table 1 Model input
From: Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore
Variable name | Value | Unit | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
Resident population module | |||
Birth rate | Time series [2000–2013] by ethnicity | Dimensionless/year | Singapore Department of Statistics |
Birth rate multiplier | 1 | Dimensionless/year | Expert opinion |
Age-specific death rate | Time series [2003–2013] | Dimensionless/year | Singapore Department of Statistics |
Fraction immigrating | 0.3 | Dimensionless | Model calibration |
Fraction female | 0.5 | Dimensionless | Singapore Department of Statistics |
Fraction male | 0.5 | Dimensionless | Singapore Department of Statistics |
Desired total population | 6.9 million | People | Population white paper |
Demand module | |||
Uptake factor [no education] | 0.045 | Dimensionless/year | Model calibration |
Uptake factor [primary education] | 0.07 | Dimensionless/year | Model calibration |
Uptake factor [secondary education] | 0.076 | Dimensionless/year | Model calibration |
Uptake factor [tertiary education] | 0.15 | Dimensionless/year | Model calibration |
Average duration in care | |||
Cataracts | 3 | Year | Expert opinion |
Myopia | 1 | Year | Expert opinion |
Refractive error | 2 | Year | Expert opinion |
Age-specific mortality rate | Time series [2003–2013] | Dimensionless/year | Singapore Department of Statistics |
Distribution of patients in care | |||
Cataracts | 0.31 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
DR | 0.09 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
Glaucoma | 0.17 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
AMD | 0.03 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
Myopia | 0.02 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
Refractive error | 0.02 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
ERM | 0.01 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
RVO | 0.01 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
Others | 0.34 | Dimensionless | Case mix study at SNEC |
Population of completed care | |||
Cataracts | 0.1 | Dimensionless | Modelers assumption |
Myopia | 0.1 | Dimensionless | Modelers assumption |
Refractive error | 0.1 | Dimensionless | Modelers assumption |
Average eye care visit per year | 2.4 | Visit/patient/year | Expert opinion |
Ophthalmologist requirement module | |||
Medical school admission | Time series [2003–2013] | People | MOH |
Medical school dropout rate | 0 | Dimensionless/year | |
Fraction to other residency program | 0.1 | Dimensionless/year | Expert opinion |
Attrition rate of house officers | 0.1 | Dimensionless/year | Expert opinion |
Attrition rate of medical officers | Time series [2003–2013] | Dimensionless/year | SNEC data |
Attrition rate of ophthalmologists | 0.03 | Dimensionless/year | Model calibration |
Residency intake | Time series [2003–2014] | Persons/year | SNEC, NUH, NHG |
Residency duration | 5 | Years | Expert opinion |
Distribution of work hours | |||
Clinical | 0.86 | Dimensionless/year | Data from SNEC |
Research | 0.09 | Dimensionless/year | Data from SNEC |
Teaching | 0.02 | Dimensionless/year | Data from SNEC |
Administration | 0.03 | Dimensionless/year | Data from SNEC |
Visit-ophthalmologist-ratio: workload | Time series [2003–2014] | Visits/worker/year | MOH |