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Table 1 Model input

From: Future requirements for and supply of ophthalmologists for an aging population in Singapore

Variable name Value Unit Source
Resident population module
 Birth rate Time series [2000–2013] by ethnicity Dimensionless/year Singapore Department of Statistics
 Birth rate multiplier 1 Dimensionless/year Expert opinion
 Age-specific death rate Time series [2003–2013] Dimensionless/year Singapore Department of Statistics
 Fraction immigrating 0.3 Dimensionless Model calibration
 Fraction female 0.5 Dimensionless Singapore Department of Statistics
 Fraction male 0.5 Dimensionless Singapore Department of Statistics
 Desired total population 6.9 million People Population white paper
Demand module
 Uptake factor [no education] 0.045 Dimensionless/year Model calibration
 Uptake factor [primary education] 0.07 Dimensionless/year Model calibration
 Uptake factor [secondary education] 0.076 Dimensionless/year Model calibration
 Uptake factor [tertiary education] 0.15 Dimensionless/year Model calibration
 Average duration in care    
  Cataracts 3 Year Expert opinion
  Myopia 1 Year Expert opinion
  Refractive error 2 Year Expert opinion
 Age-specific mortality rate Time series [2003–2013] Dimensionless/year Singapore Department of Statistics
 Distribution of patients in care    
  Cataracts 0.31 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  DR 0.09 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  Glaucoma 0.17 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  AMD 0.03 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  Myopia 0.02 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  Refractive error 0.02 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  ERM 0.01 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  RVO 0.01 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
  Others 0.34 Dimensionless Case mix study at SNEC
 Population of completed care    
  Cataracts 0.1 Dimensionless Modelers assumption
  Myopia 0.1 Dimensionless Modelers assumption
  Refractive error 0.1 Dimensionless Modelers assumption
 Average eye care visit per year 2.4 Visit/patient/year Expert opinion
Ophthalmologist requirement module
 Medical school admission Time series [2003–2013] People MOH
 Medical school dropout rate 0 Dimensionless/year  
 Fraction to other residency program 0.1 Dimensionless/year Expert opinion
 Attrition rate of house officers 0.1 Dimensionless/year Expert opinion
 Attrition rate of medical officers Time series [2003–2013] Dimensionless/year SNEC data
 Attrition rate of ophthalmologists 0.03 Dimensionless/year Model calibration
 Residency intake Time series [2003–2014] Persons/year SNEC, NUH, NHG
 Residency duration 5 Years Expert opinion
 Distribution of work hours    
  Clinical 0.86 Dimensionless/year Data from SNEC
  Research 0.09 Dimensionless/year Data from SNEC
  Teaching 0.02 Dimensionless/year Data from SNEC
  Administration 0.03 Dimensionless/year Data from SNEC
 Visit-ophthalmologist-ratio: workload Time series [2003–2014] Visits/worker/year MOH
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