Table 4 Summary of FTE GP estimates for South Australia for selected single scenarios when combined with other policy and non-policy scenarios, 2013, 2023 and 2033
Non-policy scenario | Scenario | Â | 2013 | 2023 | 2033 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Increased GP visits | Increased GP visits (single scenario 3) | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 |
Demand | 1501 | 1912 | 2394 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 171 (128, 200) | 59 (−68, 175) | −136 (−301, 106) | ||
9. Increased GP visits + reduced illness in the population single scenarios 2 + 3) | Supply | 1671 | 1971 | 2257 | |
Demand | 1515 | 1882 | 2300 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 156 (117, 185) | 89 (−39, 201) | −42 (−236, 180) | ||
10. Increased GP visits + reduced GP participation + reduced IMG recruitment (single scenarios 3 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1878 | 2094 | |
Demand | 1501 | 1912 | 2394 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 170 (136, 186) | −33 (−155, 76) | −300 (−484, −75) | ||
11. Increased GP visits + reduced illness in the population + reduced GP participation + reduced IMG recruitment (single scenarios 2 + 3 + 4 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1878 | 2094 | |
Demand | 1515 | 1882 | 2300 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 155 (113, 184) | −3 (−116, 104) | −206 (−390, −12) | ||
Reduced GP participation | Reduced GP participation (single scenario 4) | Supply | 1671 | 1955 | 2237 |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (206, 268) | 147 (37, 255) | 7 (−215, 232) | ||
12. Reduced GP participation + reduced IMG recruitment (single scenarios 4 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1878 | 2094 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (205, 279) | 70 (−49, 179) | −136 (−323, 33) | ||
13. Reduced GP participation + increased GP training positions (single scenarios 4 + 7) | Supply | 1671 | 1954 | 2348 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (190, 262) | 145 (31, 253) | 119 (−68, 336) | ||
14. Reduced GP participation + + Increased GP training positions + reduced IMG recruitment (single scenarios 4 + 7 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1878 | 2207 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (190, 258) | 70 (−42, 177) | −23 (−200, 204) | ||
15. Reduced GP participation + increased role Substitution + reduced IMG recruitment (single scenarios (4 + 5 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1878 | 2094 | |
Demand | 1291 | 1628 | 2007 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 379 (334, 401) | 251 (138, 358) | 87 (−87, 309) | ||
Policy scenario | Â | Â | Â | Â | Â |
Reduced IMG recruitment | Reduced IMG recruitment (single scenario 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1896 | 2115 |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (163, 271) | 87 (−7, 202) | −114 (−236, 114) | ||
16. Reduced IMG recruitment + increased GP training positions (single scenarios 7 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1894 | 2227 | |
Demand | 1435 | 1808 | 2230 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 236 (206, 249) | 86 (−26, 194) | −3 (−216, 224) | ||
17. Reduced IMG recruitment + increased role substitution (single scenarios 5 + 8) | Supply | 1671 | 1896 | 2115 | |
Demand | 1291 | 1628 | 2007 | ||
Mean gap (95% CIs) | 380 (330, 409) | 268 (136, 384) | 109 (−108, 347) |