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Table 3 Needs-based estimates of the number of FTE physicians and nurses in 2030 according to model assumptions

From: A needs-based methodology to project physicians and nurses to 2030: the case of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Scenario   Policy decisions Needs-based health workers
DALY multiplier  Model Task-shifting Target coverage Physicians Nurses Total Per 1000 pop
A
Median
5 1* 5788 69,399 75,187 2.05
2  + 10% 6989 86,412 93,401 2.54
3 30% 4052 71,135 75,187 2.05
4 30%  + 10% 4892 88,508 93,401 2.54
5 50% 2894 72,293 75,187 2.05
6 50%  + 10% 3494 89,906 93,401 2.54
B
Lower limit
4 7 4631 55,519 60,150 1.64
8  + 10% 5591 69,129 74,720 2.03
9 30% 3241 56,908 60,150 1.64
10 30%  + 10% 3914 70,807 74,720 2.03
11 50% 2315 57,835 60,150 1.64
12 50%  + 10% 2796 71,925 74,720 2.03
C
Upper limit
6 13 6946 83,279 90,225 2.46
14  + 10% 8387 103,694 112,081 3.05
15 30% 4862 85,363 90,225 2.46
16 30%  + 10% 5871 106,210 112,081 3.05
17 50% 3473 86,752 90,225 2.46
18 50%  + 10% 4193 107,887 112,081 3.05
  1. DALY disability-adjusted life years, pop population
  2. *Results of primary baseline model