Table 3 Needs-based estimates of the number of FTE physicians and nurses in 2030 according to model assumptions
Scenario | Policy decisions | Needs-based health workers | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DALY multiplier | Model | Task-shifting | Target coverage | Physicians | Nurses | Total | Per 1000 pop | |
A Median | 5 | 1* | – | – | 5788 | 69,399 | 75,187 | 2.05 |
2 | – | + 10% | 6989 | 86,412 | 93,401 | 2.54 | ||
3 | 30% | – | 4052 | 71,135 | 75,187 | 2.05 | ||
4 | 30% | + 10% | 4892 | 88,508 | 93,401 | 2.54 | ||
5 | 50% | – | 2894 | 72,293 | 75,187 | 2.05 | ||
6 | 50% | + 10% | 3494 | 89,906 | 93,401 | 2.54 | ||
B Lower limit | 4 | 7 | – | – | 4631 | 55,519 | 60,150 | 1.64 |
8 | – | + 10% | 5591 | 69,129 | 74,720 | 2.03 | ||
9 | 30% | – | 3241 | 56,908 | 60,150 | 1.64 | ||
10 | 30% | + 10% | 3914 | 70,807 | 74,720 | 2.03 | ||
11 | 50% | – | 2315 | 57,835 | 60,150 | 1.64 | ||
12 | 50% | + 10% | 2796 | 71,925 | 74,720 | 2.03 | ||
C Upper limit | 6 | 13 | – | – | 6946 | 83,279 | 90,225 | 2.46 |
14 | – | + 10% | 8387 | 103,694 | 112,081 | 3.05 | ||
15 | 30% | – | 4862 | 85,363 | 90,225 | 2.46 | ||
16 | 30% | + 10% | 5871 | 106,210 | 112,081 | 3.05 | ||
17 | 50% | – | 3473 | 86,752 | 90,225 | 2.46 | ||
18 | 50% | + 10% | 4193 | 107,887 | 112,081 | 3.05 | ||