Table 1 Baseline and intervention scenarios in the pipeline model
|  | Baseline | Intervention 1: Reduced attrition | Intervention 2: Increased health worker absorption | Intervention 3: Increased training enrollment | Intervention 4: Combination of interventions 1–3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current Workforce | Total number of health workers in 2017 as per MoH and CHAM staff return data and MoH headcount of DCSAs between Jun. and Dec. 2017 | Baseline Scenario | Baseline Scenario | Baseline Scenario | Baseline Scenario |
Future Inflow | Enrollment rates collected at all training colleges remain constant, except DCSAs, where enrollment increases to 7000 DCSAs by 20221 Graduation rates calculated for each cadre based on data from training colleges ranges from 75 to 100% and remains constant Eligibility for hiring uses 2017 licensing exam pass rates and remains constant2; 100% eligibility for all cadres without exams 50% absorption rate calculated from MoH and CHAM data on new hires compared with number of eligible graduates; 100% absorption of DCSAs3 Hired abroad calculated from staff return, and remains constant | Baseline Scenario | Absorption of graduates increases from 50 to 75% by 2018, except DCSAs DCSAs absorbed 100% annually3 | Doubling training enrollment by 2020 and again by 2030, except DCSAs DCSA enrollment remains constant4 | Absorption of graduates increases from 50 to 75% by 2018, except DCSAs Doubling training enrollment by 2020 and again by 2030, except DCSAs DCSAs absorbed 100% annually and enrollment remains constant3, 4 |
Future Outflow | 7% attrition, including: 1% retirement rate calculated from staff returns, 2% involuntary and 3% voluntary attrition, and 1% study leave5 | Voluntary attrition reduced incrementally from 3 to 1% by 2022 | Baseline Scenario | Baseline Scenario | Voluntary attrition reduced incrementally from 3 to 1% by 2022 |