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Table 2 Assumptions specific to each scenario

From: Managing uncertainty in forecasting health workforce demand using the Robust Workforce Planning Framework: the example of midwives in Belgium

 

2011

2016

2021

2026

2031

2036

2041

2011–2016 Source

Projection

Average number of individual obstetrical sessions per pregnancy (low-risk)

1.0

1.4

     

IMA-AIM

 

• Baseline

  

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

 

Constant

• Scenario A multiparous

  

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

 

Elicitation

Primiparous

  

1.8

2.2

3.0

3.4

5.0

 

Elicitation

• Scenarios B and C multiparous

  

1.9

2.4

3.4

4.5

6.0

 

Elicitation

Primiparous

  

2.0

2.6

4.0

5.7

8.0

 

Elicitation

Average number of individual obstetrical sessions per pregnancy (moderate- to high-risk)

0.8

3.4

     

Econodat and IMA-AIM

 

• Baseline and Scenario A

  

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

 

Constant

• Scenarios B and C

  

3.0

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.6

 

Elicitation

Average number of individual sessions on preparation for birth and parenthood education per pregnancy

0.3

0.6

     

Econodat and IMA-AIM

 

• Baseline

  

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.6

 

Constant

• Scenarios A, B and C

– Multiparous

  

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

 

Elicitation

– Primiparous

  

0.8

1.1

1.6

2.2

3.0

 

Elicitation

Average number of group sessions of preparation for birth and parenting per pregnancy

0.3

0.4

     

Econodat and IMA-AIM

 

• Baseline

  

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

 

Constant

• Scenarios A, B and C

– Multiparous

  

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

 

Elicitation

– Primiparous

  

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

 

Elicitation

Average length of stay (number of days)

       

[10, 13]

 

• Baseline, scenario A and scenario B—examples

        

o APR-DRG 540 (caesarean) – SOI 1 – 25–34 y

5.7

5.0

4.4

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Until 2025: [10, 13] then constant

– 35–39 y

5.7

5.1

4.5

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

o APR-DRG 560 (vaginal) – SOI 1 – 25–34 y

4.1

3.7

3.3

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

– 35–39 y

4.0

3.6

3.3

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

• Scenario C

        

o APR-DRG 560 – SOI 1: for all age groups

  

3.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

Until 2025: [10, 13] then reduced

– SOI 2: for all age groups

  

3.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

o APR-DRG 540 – SOI 1: for all age groups

  

4.4

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

– SOI 2: for all age groups

  

5.4

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

Average number of postnatal monitoring and care services as of the 6th day postpartum

0.9

1.7

     

Econodat and IMA-AIM

 

Baseline, Scenario A, and Scenario B

- Multiparous

  

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

 

Elicitation

- Primiparous

  

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

 

Elicitation

Scenario C

- Multiparous

  

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

 

Elicitation

- Primiparous

  

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

7.0

 

Elicitation

Inclusion of coordination tasks via an increase in the length of the prenatal and postnatal consultations (%)

 

20%

     

Elicitation

 

Baseline and scenario A

  

20%

20%

20%

20%

20%

 

Elicitation

Scenarios B and C

  

21%

22%

23%

24%

25%

 

Elicitation

  1. APR-DRG all patient refined diagnosis related groups, SOI severity of illness, IMA-AIM Intermutualistic Agency grouping all Belgian sickness funds
  2. Econodat is a database reporting the number of all billing codes by year